Look first
Read a Zukunftslauf edition
For anyone who wants to see a result first.
The Zukunftslauf is a publication, not an event. Each edition sets out scenarios on a topic that affects many Swiss companies.
View editionForesight for strategy and narrative
Strategic Foresight for Strategies People Understand
Scenarios built from verified signals rather than forecasts. So that leadership teams, executive boards and boards of directors speak the same language about the future.
Where strategies really fail
Strategies rarely fail in the analysis. They fail because people understand them differently.
Forecasts offer a certainty that does not exist. Betting on one future leaves you unprepared for the others.
Studies often change nothing. They only take effect once someone turns them into a concrete decision.
What scenarios do
Spaces for thinking, not predictions
Scenarios are not predictions but spaces for thinking and deciding. They help organisations talk about the future, and act on it, more deliberately.
Clarity
What holds in every future, and what is genuinely open?
A shared language
The board discusses pictures rather than opinions.
A narrative that holds
One message that works across several futures.
Early signs
How you will see the direction within twelve months.
Situation · Relationship · Narrative
How scenarios become communication
The order is the point. A narrative without a clear view of the situation is seen through at once.
Situation 1
Where do we really stand, and what is changing around us?
Verified signals, drivers and open questions replace gut feeling.
Relationship 2
Who is affected, who has a say, whose trust do we need?
Views from inside and outside reach the table, including uncomfortable ones.
Narrative 3
Which story holds across several possible futures?
The message is robust because it has been tested against the scenarios.
Agencies help you tell a better story. We first establish which story is worth telling.
What our scenarios look like
Two scenario spaces from the Zukunftslauf, our publication series. Each space shows four futures, with leadership, skills and signposts.
Working together
Four ways in, depending on where you stand
On site
Foresight workshop
For executive teams, boards and retreats.
- A shared understanding of the drivers
- Two to four scenarios
- First implications for your organisation
- Photo record and debrief
Your question
Scenarios on your question
For organisations with a specific strategic question.
Scenarios built around your guiding question, with personal access. Your team checks the assumptions before the scenarios are final.
Request scenariosOngoing
Foresight built into leadership
For companies where strategy is at the core of how they are run.
- Ongoing horizon scanning on your topics
- Regularly updated scenarios for your company
- The whole leadership team is involved
| Format | Duration | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Impulse | approx. 3 hrs | Getting started, opening the space, first questions about the future |
| Half day | approx. 4 hrs | Orientation, first drivers and pictures of the future |
| Full day | 1 day | Developing scenarios, surfacing implications, next steps |
Scenarios on your question can prepare a workshop, follow it up or keep it current between two sessions. The workshop adds what a document cannot: a shared decision and commitment. We agree scope and fees in our first conversation.
Method
Scenario analysis in nine steps
We work in the scenario planning tradition shaped by Pierre Wack at Shell. Every step stays traceable for your board.
Sharpen the guiding question
Which decision is ahead, and how far should you look? Five or ten years, depending on how fast the field moves.
Scan the environment
Horizon scanning means gathering signals from politics, the economy, society, technology, the environment and law. Each one with source and date.
Look back
What has shaped the development so far?
Order the drivers
Which forces are strong, and how certain is their direction? What is certain holds in every future.
Choose the axes
Two independent, open forces span four futures. The reasoning stays visible.
Make futures tangible
Short documents from the target year, such as a job advert or a board agenda item.
Test against the expected
Surprising events and room for the uncomfortable future.
Translate
What pays into every future, two possible strategic directions, the effort involved and a 12-month signpost. The decision stays with the board.
Have it cross-checked
Your team checks the assumptions before the scenarios are final.
Provenance is visible.Verified fact and reading of the future are clearly separated.
Breadth is demonstrated.Several national languages and a deliberate search for dissenting voices.
A person signs off.And answers your follow-up questions in depth.
«Better than most paid reports.»
Scenarios with AI
Scenarios built with AI are a good start. Here is how they become a basis for decisions.
| Built yourself with AI | Extended by den Otter |
|---|---|
| Plausible text, sources often unverifiable | Every statement carries its provenance, with source and date |
| Usually one pass, the obvious view | Two search passes with cross-checks, including fringe sources |
| Axes often chosen intuitively | A traceable choice of axes, the reasoning is part of the result |
| Often ends with a list | Ends with a brief for the board and questions for the conversation |
| The review rests with you alone | A person curates, reviews and signs off |
We use AI as a tool for research and preparation. Selection, review, sign-off and responsibility rest with people.
Trust
Discreet, personal, in Switzerland
Rob den Otter founded den Otter. Advisory in Baar. He brings experience in strategy, communications, marketing and journalism, as well as in transformation processes. For many years he has led interdisciplinary teams and worked closely with C-level executives. He holds an EMBA in Digital Leadership and is a TEDx speaker.
For our work together and your scenarios:
DiscreetNo public references, no client names.
PersonalOne point of contact. Your scenarios are open only to people you approve.
In SwitzerlandBased in Baar. Your scenarios are stored in the Zurich region.
Frequently asked questions
What is strategic foresight?
A structured way of making possible futures visible, so that more robust decisions can follow.
Is it a forecast?
No. Scenarios describe what could become plausible, not what will happen.
How is it different from a trend study?
A trend study describes an industry. Our scenarios answer your guiding question and end with your decision.
What does foresight have to do with communication?
A narrative only holds if it fits the situation. Scenarios clarify the situation and test the message against several futures.
Can I not just create scenarios with ChatGPT?
You can create plausible text. Verified signals, a traceable choice of axes and someone who stands behind the result are another matter.
Do you use AI?
Yes, as a tool for research and preparation. Selection, review, sign-off and responsibility rest with people.
Does this work for a leadership or board retreat?
Yes. Scenarios give a retreat a shared starting point. Formats range from around three hours to a full day.
Which organisations is it for?
Swiss organisations whose leadership wants to work through a strategic question under uncertainty. Any industry.
In which language?
German or English.
What is the Zukunftslauf?
A publication series with scenarios on topics that affect many companies. Not a running event.
Which question is becoming uncomfortable for you?
Let us talk about it.